Tectónica activa de la Cuenca de Málaga: evidencias en marcadores morfotectónicos (Cordillera Bética Occidental, España)

The Malaga Basin is located in the westernmost part of the Betic Cordillera. This alpine cordillera in the south of Spain is the most active region of the Iberian Peninsula. Some of the most destructive earthquakes occurred historically in Spain took place within the Malaga Basin. In this work we focus on geomorphic and morphotectonic observations in the aim of finding active tectonic structures that could be seismogenic sources. First, we study the spatial arrangement and age of the Quaternary alluvial fan system as well as the drainage pattern of the basin, followed by the analysis of the distribution of regional markers like marine erosive surfaces and the extend of Pliocene marine deposits in the Malaga Basin. The tectonic structures inferred as active by the morphotectonic analysis are grouped into four main families: N60º-85ºE folds associated with blind thrust faults, N20º-30ºE and N40º-50ºE high angle dip-slip faults, and N165º-170ºE tear faults. Finally, their seismic potential in terms of maximum moment magnitude (Mw) is assessed by means of empirical relationships, varying between 6.0 and 7.0 depending on the hypothesis considered.La cuenca de Málaga se sitúa en la parte más occidental de la cordillera Bética. En esta cordillera alpina del sur de España se han localizado algunos de los terremotos más destructivos ocurridos históricamente en la península Ibérica. En este trabajo se estudian algunos de los aspectos geomorfológicos de la cuenca del Málaga con el fin de identificar las estructuras tectónicas activas que pudiesen ser fuentes sismogénicas. Se estudia la distribución y edad del sistema de abanicos aluviales de la cuenca, así como la red de drenaje. También se analiza la distribución regional de marcadores tectónicos pliocenos, como superficies de erosión marina y los depósitos sedimentarios de este periodo transgresivo. Se han identificado varias estructuras tectónicas activas que han sido agrupadas en cuatro familias: pliegues N60º-85ºE asociados con falla inversas ciegas, fallas de alto buzamiento con salto en la vertical N20º-30ºE y N40º-50ºE, y fallas de transferencia N165º-170ºE. En base a relaciones empíricas se ha estimado un potencial sísmico para las fallas identificadas, obteniéndose valores de magnitud momento (Mw) entre 6,0 y 7,0

Fallas activas y sismicidad en las partes altas de la ciudad de Granada: comportamiento dinámico de la Formación Alhambra

En este trabajo se caracteriza el comportamiento dinámico de la Formación Alhambra mediante un análisis de estabilidad del Tajo de San Pedro, localizado al pie del monumento de la Alhambra (Granada). La Formación Alhambra está formada principalmente por conglomerados de edad Plioceno-Pleistoceno inferior con un espesor de al menos 200 m. En esta formación se localizan numerosas fallas normales con dirección NO-SE predominante. Muchas de estas fallas presentan una actividad reciente, pudiendo ser relacionada con la ocurrencia de terremotos en la zona. La peligrosidad de estos eventos sísmicos debe ser considerada como moderada, ya que existen numerosos registros históricos en los que los daños producidos en los muros de la Alhambra son relacionados con la actividad sísmica. Por otra parte, estas fallas también representan discontinuidades mecánicas que contribuyen a la reducción de la estabilidad del conjunto del macizo rocoso. Este es el caso del Tajo de San Pedro, cuyo escarpe lateral constituye el plano de una de estas fallas. Los conglomerados de la Formación Alhambra son un sustrato rocoso firme y resistente con valor de aceleración crítica elevado (ac=0.51g), lo que evita que se produzcan importantes inestabilidades de ladera de origen sísmico.We study the dynamic behaviour of the Alhambra Formation by means of a slope stability analysis of the Tajo de San Pedro slope, which is located at the bottom of the Alhambra monument (Granada). The Alhambra Formation is formed mainly by conglomerates of Pliocene to Lower Pleistocene age, and has a thickness of at least 200 m. This formation is affected by a number of normal faults trending NW-SE. Many of these faults show evidence of recent activity and so they could be responsible of the occurrence of past earthquakes in the area. In fact, damage to the walls of the Alhambra has been related many times to the occurrence of earthquakes. Additionally, these faults also play as mechanical discontinuities that contribute to reducing the stability of the rock mass. This is the case of the Tajo de San Pedro slope, one of its lateral faces being a fault scarp. The conglomerates of the Alhambra Formation are a firm and resistant bedrock that shows a high critical acceleration value (ac=0.51g), which reduces the likelihood of a instability triggered by an earthquake

Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain)

Including faults as seismogenic sources in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) has turned into a common practice as knowledge of active faults is improving. Moreover, the occurrence of earthquakes in multi-fault ruptures has evidenced the need to understand faults as interacting systems rather than independent sources. We present a PSHA for the Southeastern Spain obtained by including the faults of a moderate seismicity region, the Eastern Betics Shear Zone (EBSZ) in SE Spain, as the main seismogenic sources in two separate source models, one considering background seismicity. In contrast with previous studies in Spain, earthquake occurrence of the EBSZ system is modeled considering different hypotheses of multi-fault ruptures at the whole fault system scale and weighted in a logic tree. We compare the hazard levels with those from an area source PSHA and a previous fault-based approach. The results show a clear control of the EBSZ faults in the seismic hazard for all return periods, increasing drastically the hazard levels in the regions close to the fault traces and influencing up to 20 km farther with respect to the area source PSHA. The seismic hazard is dependent on the fault slip rates as peak ground accelerations and territorial extension of the fault influence appear higher around the Alhama de Murcia and Carboneras faults, while lower slip rate faults (Palomares Fault) show minor contribution to the hazard. For the return period of 475 years and near-fault locations, our models are more consistent with the ground motion values reached in the 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca event than the building code or national seismic hazard map, which suggest that our fault system-based model performs more accurate estimations for this return period. Fault data, mainly slip rates, and its uncertainties have a clear impact on the seismic hazard and, for some faults, the lack of detailed paleoseismic studies can compromise the reliability of the hazard estimations. This, together with epistemic uncertainties concerning the background seismicity, are key discussion points in the present study, having an impact on further research and aiming to serve as a case example for other low-to-moderate seismicity regions worldwide

Seismogenic zoning based on the geothermal gradient, strenght and depth of the fragile-ductile transition in the upper crust. Methodological approach for seismic hazard calculations in southeast Spain

In this work we present a methodological approach to define seismogenic zones for seismic hazard analysis based on the relationships which can be drawn from the geothermal gradient, total strength of the upper crust and the depth of the fragile-ductile transition, and their relation with the mean focal depth and a parameter hereby defined: Seismic Density Index (number of events per km3 x 1000). A revision of the deep geophysical data available in SE Spain has led to the definition of 6 distinctive crustal blocks. Two main types of crustal blocks are identified: hot-and-weak and cold-and-strong. Hot-and-weak blocks show consistently higher geothermal gradients, lower strengths and shallower fragile-ductile depths than coldand- strong blocks. Furthermore hot-and-weak blocks show higher seismic density indexes and shallower mean focal depths. However, two blocks biased from this relationship and so are called anomalous. According to these results four seismogenic zones can be defined in SE Spain. The a and b parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter law of each zone are consistent with the thermal and strength properties of the blocks. Zones based on the hot-and-weak blocks show higher a and b values than the cold-and-strong ones, while the anomalous blocks show values in between these extreme

Modelling earthquake rupture rates in fault systems for seismic hazard assessment: the Eastern Betics Shear Zone.

Earthquake surface fault ruptures can show very complex geometries and involve different faults simultaneously. Consequently, modern fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) need to account for such complexities in order to achieve more realistic modellings that treat fault systems as a whole and consider the occurrence of earthquake ruptures as aleatory uncertainties. We use SHERIFS, a recent approach of modelling annual rates of complex multi-fault ruptures, to obtain system-level magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) for the Eastern Betics Shear Zone (EBSZ, Spain) considering four fault rupture hypotheses. We then analyze the consistency of each scenario based on data from the earthquake catalogue and paleoseismic studies. The definition of the different rupture hypotheses was discussed within the frame of Fault2SHA ESC working group and critical fault input data is extracted from previous published studies. The four rupture hypotheses are defined as incremental scenarios based on fault geometry and kinematics, with lengths varying from minimal fault sections to a rupture of nearly the whole system. The results suggest that multi-fault ruptures involving lengths up to single to several whole faults are consistent with the annual rates from both the instrumental catalogue and paleoseismic record. The method does not allow to completely discard any hypothesis, but it allows to weight the different models in a logic tree for seismic hazard assessment. The approach is revealed as a practical tool for obtaining fault-system MFDs and as a useful tool for highlighting limitations and uncertainties in geological and paleoseismic data to be assessed. This study aims to constitute a step forward in the consideration of complex multi-fault ruptures for future seismic hazard assessments in the region

New insights on the seismogenic potential of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (SE Iberia): Quaternary activity and paleoseismicity of the SW segment of the Carrascoy Fault Zone

The Carrascoy Fault (CAF) is one of the main active faults that form part of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, a 450 km fault system that accommodates most of the convergence between the Eurasian (Iberia) and Nubian plates in the Betic Cordillera, south Spain. Although the CAF represents a major earthquake threat to the nearby City of Murcia, studies on its Quaternary tectonics and seismogenic potential are scarce to date. We present evidence that supports the division of the CAF into two overlapping segments with contrasting tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, and landform control: a SW segment, characterized by a broad fold-and-thrust zone similar to the forebergs defined in the Gobi-Altai region, and a NE segment, characterized by a sharp mountain front controlled by strike-slip tectonics. We attribute the differentiation into these two segments to the stresses associated with topography, which in turn is a consequence of the shortening component, at the middle Pleistocene, after circa 217.4 ka. For the SW segment we infer the occurrence of 9 to 11, Mw 6.7 paleoearthquakes in the last 30.2 kyr, and a slip rate of 0.37 ± 0.08 m/kyr. We date the occurrence of the last surface rupture event after 2750 B.P., and we estimate an average recurrence period of major events of 3.3 ± 0.7 kyrThis work was supported by SISMOGEN (IGME, 2279) and FASEGEO (CGL2009-09726) research projects and a technical assistance of the Civil Protection Service of Murci

Active fault databases: building a bridge between earthquake geologists and seismic hazard practitioners, the case of the QAFI v.3 database

Active fault databases are a very powerful and useful tool in seismic hazard assessment, particularly when singular faults are considered seismogenic sources. Active fault databases are also a very relevant source of information for earth scientists, earthquake engineers and even teachers or journalists. Hence, active fault databases should be updated and thoroughly reviewed on a regular basis in order to keep a standard quality and uniformed criteria. Desirably, active fault databases should somehow indicate the quality of the geological data and, particularly, the reliability attributed to crucial fault-seismic parameters, such as maximum magnitude and recurrence interval. In this paper we explain how we tackled these issues during the process of updating and reviewing the Quaternary Active Fault Database of Iberia (QAFI) to its current version 3. We devote particular attention to describing the scheme devised for classifying the quality and representativeness of the geological evidence of Quaternary activity and the accuracy of the slip rate estimation in the database. Subsequently, we use this information as input for a straightforward rating of the level of reliability of maximum magnitude and recurrence interval fault seismic parameters. We conclude that QAFI v.3 is a much better database than version 2 either for proper use in seismic hazard applications or as an informative source for non-specialized users. However, we already envision new improvements for a future update

Paleoseismological evidence of Holocene activity of the Los Tollos Fault (Murcia, SE Spain): A lately formed Quaternary tectonic feature of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone

The Los Tollos Fault is a recent and important feature of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, one of the major tectonic structures in South Iberia accommodating the convergence between Nubian and Eurasian plates in the western Mediterranean. The Los Tollos Fault became active by the end of Middle Pleistocene introducing some paleogeographical modifications. Previously mapped as a secondary normal fault related to the Carrascoy Fault, recent research evidences that the Los Tollos Fault is an independent Holocene active left-lateral reverse fault extending for at least 15 km. Data analysis from 4 trenches dug across the fault has revealed the occurrence of at least two paleo-earthquake events during the Holocene. The most recent event is dated between 2,740 and 2,140 yr BP (8th to 2nd centuries BC). The size of the paleoevents is calculated to be Mw 6.3 – 6.6 following empirical regressions on surface rupture length. The recurrence interval is estimated to be between 2,200-6,860 years, fitting a slip rate for the fault between 0.12 and 0.17 mm/yr. Such parameters highlight the Los Tollos Fault as a tectonic structure with a considerable activity located relatively close to densely populated areas. These seismogenic parameters should be considered in future reassessments of the seismic hazard of the region.La falla de Los Tollos es una estructura reciente e importante de la Zona de Cizalla de la Bética Oriental, la principal estructura del sureste de la Península Ibérica que acomoda gran parte de la convergencia entre las placas de Eurasia y Nubia en el Mediterráneo Occidental. La falla de Los Tollos, descrita inicialmente como una falla normal secundaria relacionada con la falla de Carrascoy, comenzó su actividad a finales del Pleistoceno Medio generando algunas modificaciones paleogeográficas significativas. El trabajo que aquí presentamos demuestra su activad durante el Holoceno con una cinemática lateral sinestral con componente inversa a lo largo de una longitud de 15 km, e independiente de la Falla de Carrascoy. Del análisis de los datos obtenidos en 4 trincheras paleosismológicas realizadas a lo largo de la traza de la falla, se han podido interpretar la ocurrencia de al menos 2 paleoterremotos durante el Holoceno, acotándose el evento más reciente entre hace 2.740 y 2.140 años (siglos VIII a II a.C.). La magnitud máxima de estos paleoterremotos, estimada mediante correlaciones empíricas que consideran la longitud de rotura en superficie de la falla, se encuentra entre Mw 6,3 y 6,6, con un periodo de recurrencia comprendido entre 2.200 y 6.860 años. La tasa de deslizamiento neta calculada para la falla se estima entre 0,12 y 0,17 mm/a. Estos parámetros identifican la falla de Los Tollos como una estructura activa situada en las cercanías de áreas densamente pobladas y ponen de manifiesto el interés que tendría considerarla en futuras reevaluaciones de la peligrosidad sísmica en la región

Paleoseismological evidence of Holocene activity of the Los Tollos Fault (Murcia, SE Spain): A lately formed Quaternary tectonic feature of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone

[EN] The Los Tollos Fault is a recent and important feature of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, one of the major tectonic structures in South Iberia accommodating the convergence between Nubian and Eurasian plates in the western Mediterranean. The Los Tollos Fault became active by the end of Middle Pleistocene introducing some paleogeographical modifications. Previously mapped as a secondary normal fault related to the Carrascoy Fault, recent research evidences that the Los Tollos Fault is an independent Holocene active left-lateral reverse fault extending for at least 15 km. Data analysis from 4 trenches dug across the fault has revealed the occurrence of at least two paleo-earthquake events during the Holocene. The most recent event is dated between 2,740 and 2,140 yr BP (8th to 2nd centuries BC). The size of the paleoevents is calculated to be Mw 6.3 – 6.6 following empirical regressions on surface rupture length. The recurrence interval is estimated to be between 2,200-6,860 years, fitting a slip rate for the fault between 0.12 and 0.17 mm/yr. Such parameters highlight the Los Tollos Fault as a tectonic structure with a considerable activity located relatively close to densely populated areas. These seismogenic parameters should be considered in future reassessments of the seismic hazard of the region.[ES] La falla de Los Tollos es una estructura reciente e importante de la Zona de Cizalla de la Bética Oriental, la principal estructura del sureste de la Península Ibérica que acomoda gran parte de la convergencia entre las placas de Eurasia y Nubia en el Mediterráneo Occidental. La falla de Los Tollos, descrita inicialmente como una falla normal secundaria relacionada con la falla de Carrascoy, comenzó su actividad a finales del Pleistoceno Medio generando algunas modificaciones paleogeográficas significativas. El trabajo que aquí presentamos demuestra su activad durante el Holoceno con una cinemática lateral sinestral con componente inversa a lo largo de una longitud de 15 km, e independiente de la Falla de Carrascoy. Del análisis de los datos obtenidos en 4 trincheras paleosismológicas realizadas a lo largo de la traza de la falla, se han podido interpretar la ocurrencia de al menos 2 paleoterremotos durante el Holoceno, acotándose el evento más reciente entre hace 2.740 y 2.140 años (siglos VIII a II a.C.). La magnitud máxima de estos paleoterremotos, estimada mediante correlaciones empíricas que consideran la longitud de rotura en superficie de la falla, se encuentra entre Mw 6,3 y 6,6, con un periodo de recurrencia comprendido entre 2.200 y 6.860 años. La tasa de deslizamiento neta calculada para la falla se estima entre 0,12 y 0,17 mm/a. Estos parámetros identifican la falla de Los Tollos como una estructura activa situada en las cercanías de áreas densamente pobladas y ponen de manifiesto el interés que tendría considerarla en futuras reevaluaciones de la peligrosidad sísmica en la región.FASEGEO Project (CGL2009-09726) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation.Peer reviewe